The Basra Business -What we know and what we don't.

From The Weekly Standard. Frederick W. Kagan & Kimberly Kagan discuss what we know and what we don't know about PM Maliki's security operation in Basrah.

MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION about recent Iraqi operations against illegal Shia militias has focused on issues about which we do not yet know enough to make sound judgments, overlooking important conclusions that are already clear. Coming days and weeks will provide greater insight into whether Maliki or Sadr gained or lost from this undertaking; how well or badly the Iraqi Security Forces performed; and what kind of deal (if any) the Iraqi Government accepted in return for Sadr's order to stand down his forces. The following lists provide a brief summary of what we can say with confidence about recent operations and what we cannot.

What we know:

The legitimate Government of Iraq and its legally-constituted security forces launched a security operation against illegal, foreign-backed, insurgent and criminal militias serving leaders who openly call for the defeat and humiliation of the United States and its allies in Iraq and throughout the region. We can be ambivalent about the political motivations of Maliki and his allies, but we cannot be ambivalent about the outcome of this combat between our open allies and our open enemies.

What we don't know:

How well did the ISF fight in Basra and, in general, what actually happened there? The absence of partnered Coalition Forces in the city makes it extremely difficult to understand the nature of the fighting and the Iraqi forces' performance--long experience in the limitations of stringers and "eyewitnesses" or hospital sources in places where we did know what had actually happened should leave us skeptical of all initial reports of combat coming out of Basra.

Facts coming out of Basrah are sketchy and incomplete at best. But the Kagan's point out we have always wanted Iraqi Security Forces to take over their own security. This independent operation says politically they are ready even if militarily they are not. They are politically willing to start operations against criminal elements whether Shia in Basrah region or Sunni in Mosul.

A few things I add to the Kagan's comments is many have been complaining that national leaders are stuck behind American fortifications in the Green Zone. The fact that PM Maliki went down to Basrah to direct the fighting shows that the PM is not afraid to wonder out of the Green Zone. This fact is made even more important by the fact that it was an Iraqi directed and led operation with little American or British assistance.

In addition, the battle in Iraq is no longer centered in Baghdad. Iraqi Security Forces are now strong enough to take the battle to cities outside of Baghdad as this operation in Basrah shows as does the IA centered operation in Mosul also shows.

While insurgents are still able to attack civilians in Baghdad, the major battles are now not in Baghdad. All insurgents are now pushed far away from Baghdad, the center of gravity in Iraq. As operations outside Baghdad continue to occur, the Iraqi Army is getting better able to move forces to decisive points well outside of Baghdad. This new capacity is significant in terms of the Iraqi Army being able to project its forces throughout the country.

The Surge of forces in Iraq has provided the conditions for the young democracy to flourish and to allow the Iraqi Security Forces to build capacity. We are at a new milestone in Iraq with Iraqi Security Forces capable of moving around the country to battle insurgents. In turn, Iraqi leaders are using these forces more often without assistance from American forces.

Future battles may not be completely victorious, as the Basrah operations shows. However, the fact that these battles are occuring and Iraqi Security Forces at least are holding their own is a dramatic shift from just a short year ago.

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