The Surge Effect - The gamble is paying off for Bush and McCain.

From Fred Barnes ath The Weekly Standard.

The match is almost perfect. As the surge in Iraq has succeeded, the presidential campaign of John McCain has risen from the ashes. This is no coincidence, and the message is simple and unmistakable. The surge is now a powerful force in American politics. In the jargon of the 2008 presidential race, it's a game-changer. The surge effect is the result of gains in Iraq well beyond the most optimistic dreams of the surge's advocates. The American military, led by General David Petraeus, has under-promised and over-delivered. Violence has dropped precipitously. So have attacks on Americans and combat deaths. Baghdad has been virtually secured, al Qaeda crushed, and sectarian bloodshed significantly reduced. Provinces once controlled by insurgents are scheduled to be turned over to well-trained Iraqi forces, starting with Anbar in the spring. The war, in short, is being won.

Mr. Barnes explains why it is good for John McCain.

This level of denial about the surge among Democrats is politically dangerous. Democratic voters may be immune to the surge effect, but independents are not. If the surge continues to bring stability to Iraq, independents--who produced the Democratic triumph in the 2006 election--almost certainly will begin to shift their support. They have no partisan commitment to defeat in Iraq. Like most Americans, they prefer victory.

For a full read, click here.

Minority retort

From Michael Coren at the Toronto Sun.

The irony is extraordinary. Canadians pride themselves on dismissing the United States as reactionary and unsophisticated while watching as that same country contemplates whether to elect as its leader a black man, a woman or a member of a religious minority. But then the U.S.A. never has been the ogre we like to imagine and in many ways is far more progressive and enlightened than is Canada. The president may not be the black Barack Obama, the female Hillary Clinton or the Mormon Mitt Romney, but the fact that they are serious contenders is truly remarkable. It's doubtful if Canadians would similarly vote for people irrespective of their race, gender or faith.

For a full read, click here.

Middle East indebted to Bush

From Salim Mansur at the Toronto Sun.

This week's journey of U.S. President George W. Bush to the Middle East -- the itinerary beginning with Israel includes visits to the Palestinian territories, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt -- is greatly significant and yet, in keeping with his temper, a low-keyed affair as the last remaining months of his presidency unfold. We likely can surmise there is one more visit to the region still to be made by Bush. This will be a visit to Baghdad with an address to Iraq's democratically elected parliament before Bush takes leave from the White House for his ranch in Crawford, Tex. When Bush stepped into the Oval Office -- a long time ago now it seems on that cold January morning in 2001 -- the Arab-Muslim world was furthest from his mind as it was from the minds of most Americans. But the malignancy of the Middle East, ignored by the West and the previous occupants of the White House, would strike New York City, bringing the Arab-Muslim world's politics of fanatical hate, deep-seated resentment and a mountain of grievances to the shores of the United States. The Arabs had squandered the 20th century just as they slept through much of the previous four centuries, while the West created a whole new world of science and democracy. The independence won for the Arabs from the rule of the Ottoman Turks by Britain and France at the end of the First World War eventually became a cruel mockery with a people -- despite the resources and goodwill available -- incapable of lifting themselves up from the broken ruins of their tribal culture. This is the root cause of Arab failure, and instead of embracing the modern world by reforming its culture the Arab political class has indulged in blaming others, most particularly Jews and Israel. George Bush could have remained indifferent to the Arab-Muslim world's malignancy, mouthing pieties as members of the ever fashionable lib-left political class in the West endlessly does, while watching the Arabs sink deeper into the political squalor of their making. Instead, Bush struck directly at the most rotten core of the Middle East -- Iraq, the land of two rivers, choked to death by the vilest of Arab tyrants in recent memory, Saddam Hussein -- to give the Arabs an opportunity one more time to make a better future. Regime change in Baghdad has brought a new Iraq to emerge with American support despite the fanatical opposition of the most backward tribal warriors of the Arab-Muslim world. Iraqis -- Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds -- now bear responsibility that comes with freedom to write a new history for Arabs as, for instance, the far more populous and ethnically diverse people of India are doing. The Arab leaders greeting Bush remain frozen in their hypocrisy, unable to say publicly what they will say privately, being relieved in knowing the United States remains committed to maintaining order and security in the Persian Gulf region. But free Iraq looms large in the capitals of the Arab states, and if Iraqis keep progressing in freedom their example will be an irresistible attraction for the Arab-Muslim world spread between the Atlantic and the Persian Gulf. A democratic Iraq is George Bush's formidable legacy, and the Arabs will be talking about him long after his contemporary critics bite the dust and are forgotten

I could not have said it any better myself.

Sorry, Barack, You’ve lost Iraq.

From Michael Hirsh at Newsweek.

The U.S. will be entering a strategic partnership with Iraq, much like the strategic partnership that exists with Germany, Japan, and Korea. The UN mandate for Coalition presence in Iraq ends in December 2008. The significance of this partnership is explained.

Most significant of all, the new partnership deal with Iraq, including a status of forces agreement that would then replace the existing Security Council mandate authorizing the presence of the U.S.-led multinational forces in Iraq, will become a sworn obligation for the next president. It will become just another piece of the complex global security framework involving a hundred or so countries with which Washington now has bilateral defense or security cooperation agreements.

This strategic agreement is expected to be in place no later than July 2008. Commenting on how many troops would remain in Iraq, a Pentagon contractor working on the strategic relationship stated,

....the administration is considering new configurations of forces that could reduce troop levels to well under 100,000, perhaps to as few as 60,000, by the time the next president takes office.

While presidential candidates are still looking at Iraq as a quagmire, reality on the ground says Iraq and the U.S. are entering a long-term political, military, economic, and diplomatic relationship that will endure for decades and will ensure a stable Middle East in those decades to come.

For a full read, click here.

General: Anbar Ready for Handover

From the AP.

Iraq's western province of Anbar, hotbed of the Sunni Arab insurgency for the first four years of the war, will be returned to Iraqi control in March, a senior U.S. general said Thursday. In a telephone interview from Iraq, Marine Maj. Gen. Walter E. Gaskin, commander of the roughly 35,000 Marine and Army forces in Anbar, said levels of violence have dropped so significantly — coupled with the growth and development of Iraqi security forces in the province — that Anbar is ready to be handed back to the Iraqis.

Who would have thought that The Surge would be so successful.

"I can say that the Anbar province, which was the hottest area of Iraq, does not now need any (U.S.) forces because the (number) of the attacks is now zero for months now, the Iraqi minister said, speaking through an interpreter. As recently as 18 months ago Anbar was the central stronghold of al-Qaida in Iraq, the shadowy insurgent group that U.S. officials say is largely led by foreign terrorists but populated mainly by Iraqis.

In 18 months, the stronghold of Al Qaeda in Iraq now has zero attacks for months now.

For a full read, click here.

Bin Laden turns heat on Saudi Arabia

From Asia Times Online. HT for Sea2Sea Blog.

Michael Scheuer discusses Bin Laden's latest released on 29 December 2007. In it, Bin Laden shifts attention to the leadership of Saudi Arabia noting,

He asks the Iraqi mujahideen how they can trust Saudi King Abdullah, who is the "malignant foe" of Islam, the "main US agent in the region" and a man who took it on himself "to tempt and tame every free, virtuous, and honest person with the aim of dragging him to the path of temptation and misguidance ... [and] the path of betraying the religion and nation and submitting to the will of the Crusader-Zionist alliance". The Americans are defeated, bin Laden concludes, but to assure God's victory the Iraqi mujahideen must reject Saudi overtures and direction if they are "not to waste the fruit of this chaste and pure blood that was shed for the sake of consolidating religion and entrenching the state of Muslims".

While he is still stating that US forces are defeated in Iraq, he notes the Iraqi Mujahideen may not be able to consolidate victory due to Saudi Arabian interference, namely support of the national unity government in Iraq, noting this is what Saudi Arabia got the Afghani Mujahideen to do with the Communist Afghani government. He states this prvented the Mujahideen from consolidating power in Afghanistan.

Mr. Scheuer's analysis follows:

Bin Laden and his senior lieutenants are reliving what for them is a familiar nightmare. In one of the greatest ironies of the post-1945 era, Islamist fighters have proven that with great, prolonged and bloody effort they can claim the military defeat of superpowers - the USSR and the United States - but cannot consolidate victory when confronted by the wiles, funds and religious establishment of the Saudi leadership. While it is clear in the December 29 tape that bin Laden rates the Saudis as the main obstacle to God's victory in Iraq, there is little indication of what he intends to do to destroy Riyadh's ability to stymie the mujahideen there as it did in Afghanistan. One possibility - though bin Laden did not allude to this - would require a rethinking of al-Qaeda's grand strategy. Although bin Laden and al-Qaeda have been consistent in their three-fold grand strategy - to drive the United States from the Muslim world, destroy Israel and incumbent Muslim regimes and settle scores with the Shi'ites - they now face a situation where the Saudi regime has not only so far prevented the unification of Islamist leaders, but is allegedly preparing the Sunni Iraqi insurgents it supports for a civil war with Iraq's Iranian-backed Shi'ites.

While I concur that the Saudis are fearful of a democratically elected national unity government as it will eventually lead to their downfall because their own citizens will begin to see what oil riches and freedom brings to average Iraqis, I do not believe the Sunnis in Iraq are in a position win a civil war against the Shiites, with or without Saudi assistance.

We need not forget that the Sunni insurgency started and gained steam with the ultimate goal of ridding Iraq of occupying US Forces. However, this initial impetus changed when Sadr's militia begun indiscriminately killing Sunnis by the truckloads as retaliation for the mosque bombings and other Al Qaeda attacks. Sunni insurgents turned on Al Qaeda due to its indiscriminate killing of fellow Sunnis and extremist version of Islam it espoused, which has never had much support in secular Iraq.

Sunni insurgents found the only way to rid themselves of extremist Al Qaeda elements was to seek American help. With switching sides, they begin to receive American money, support, and an opportunity to gain a voice back in Iraq with the recent passing of The Accountability and Justice Law. They have even been able to gain fore political leverage with the "memorandum of understanding" with the Kurds. They will not squander this new found power for another war which they cannot hope to win.

Finally, Al Qaeda has not been absent in Saudi Arabia as the article implies. In fact, the government of Saudi Arabia has taken great care in killing and detaining insurgents, executing deradicalization operations in its prisons, changing many imam minds against extremism, and protecting its oil facilities since 2004 when Al Qaeda declared war on these facilities.

While Saudi Arabia can do more, the Wahhabi influence which dominates government has to be dealt with over time, else Saudi Arabia will see itself in a civil war.

The mysterious Afghan warlord trusted to spread peace in a divided province

From Times Online.

Mullah Abdul Salaam, 45-year-old former Mujahidin guerrilla who recently switched sides and is now in charge of the key district of Musa Qala had this to say when talking with former Taliban soldiers.

“It is enough now,” he urged the 30 men huddled around him. “Our dead have been eaten by the dogs.” He gestured at a small group of British and American officers. “You can see around you these people from noble nations have come to build you streets and schools. If they should ask you to leave your religion then you have a right to fight them, but not because they come to bring you streets and schools.” The village was in an area roamed by Taleban led by Mullah Abdul Bari, who remains at large. Mullah Salaam wasted little time in using his own past connection with the militant commander in his address. “Abdul Bari is our brother,” he said. “He can come and sit among us . . . He is from this land. Speak with him. But don’t let him be stupid. If he is not on the right path then don’t let yourself be sacrificed for him. Tell him to take his jihad somewhere else.” (emphasis added)

While he will need to be watch closely, Mullah Salaam's switch may lead to more reconciliation with other Taliban commanders.

Two things are significant in this article.

1. Winning hearts and minds is important. Several Taliban are starting to see Coalition forces are not there to occupy Afghanistan and suppress its people. We are there to bring the nation out of poverty which provides Al Qaeda with its fighters.

2. He is telling his forces to go out and talk to other Taliban to win them over.

For a full read, click here.

NATO airstrike targets 'senior Taliban commander' in Afghanistan

From Earth Times.

A NATO-led airstrike targeted a senior Taliban commander in north-eastern Afghanistan on Saturday, the military said. The death and name of the targeted commander is yet to be confirmed. The raid by NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) took place in a compound in Qari village in Tagab district of Kapisa province after intelligence reports indicated that a group of Taliban leaders were meeting in the area, ISAF said in a statement. The commander is a key figure for providing materials for making roadside bombs in the valley and is also responsible for organizing attacks against Afghan and international forces, it said. "The commander was wanted for attacks in Kapisa, Parwan and Kabul Provinces," the statement. ISAF personnel ensured the site was clear of civilians before conducting the strike, the statement adding that the joint Afghan and ISAF forces have been conducting an assessment of the site. "The name of the commander will be released upon confirmation of his death," the statement added.

Another one gone, another one bites the dust.

U.S.: Iranian bombs rise in Iraq

From CNN.

Attacks against U.S. troops in Iraq with bombs believed linked to Iran -- known as explosively formed penetrators (EFPs) -- have risen sharply in January after several months of decline, according to the top U.S. commander in Iraq. Iraqi and U.S. officials indicated just a month ago that Iran was using its influence to improve security in Iraq by restraining cross-border weapons flow and militia activity. The U.S. military had said in recent months that the number of EFP attacks had gone down. Gen. David Petraeus disclosed the reversal to reporters after a meeting with President Bush who was visiting troops in Kuwait. "In this year, EFPs have gone up, actually, over the last 10 days by a factor of two or three, and frankly we're trying to determine why that might be," Petraeus said.

The answer is simple and can be summed up with three letters: N.I.E.

For a full read, click here.

Iraq parliament passes law to rehire Baathists

From Yahoo via Reuters.

Iraq's parliament passed a law on Saturday to ease restrictions on mostly Sunni Arab members of Saddam Hussein's Baath party returning to public life, one of the main political benchmarks set by the United States. Washington has been pressing Iraq's Shi'ite Islamist-led government to pass the law in an effort to draw the minority Sunni Arab community that held sway under Saddam closer into the political process. "The law has been passed. We see it as a very good sign of progress and it will greatly benefit Baathists. It was passed smoothly and opposition was small," said Rasheed al-Azzawi, a Sunni member of the committee which helped modify some of the language of the law. The Accountability and Justice bill replaces the De-Baathification law, which Sunnis have long complained amounted to collective punishment against their sect. The new law will allow thousands of former party members to apply for reinstatement in the civil service and military, while pensions will be given to a smaller group of more senior members still banned from public life. (emphasis added).

Another nail has just been put in Al Qaeda in Iraq's coffin.

Four especially important points are present in this article:

1. It passed smoothly without significant opposition.

2. It allows former party members to be reinstated in the military which will assist Iraq with its leadership problems in this organization.

3. It reinstates pensions for many senior members. Undoubtedly, while not mentioned, it also has a provision that if found to be working against the government, the pension can be suspended.

4. Finally, a key US benchmark has happened because of The Surge. What are anti-war, defeatist US politicians going to say now?

With the likehood of a national unity government on the rise, passage of the oil law cannot be far behind.

For a full read, click here.

Iraqi official says al-Qaeda in Iraq is penetrated, has become an open book

From KUNA.

The Interior Ministry announced Friday that al-Qaeda in Iraq has been successfully penetrated by means of a recently formed government security apparatus and is virtually an "open book," confirming that the sectarian sedition in the country was at the end of its rope. Major General Abdul Karim Khalaf, director of operations at the Interior Ministry, told KUNA here "we have succeeded in establishing a capable intelligence apparatus to penetrate the al-Qaeda organization in Iraq and all armed groups targeting Iraqi national security." He said emphatically that the sectarian sedition in Iraq has virtually ended, adding that the new intelligence apparatus is able to achieve its objectives regarding all armed groups operating in Iraq. He went on to say that "al-Qaeda is now an open book for us, now that we have succeeded in penetrating it." Khalaf did not reveal the extent of al-Qaeda's reach in Iraq but asserted that trained Iraqi security elements currently operate under cover within this terrorist organization which he said will be dismantled soon.

As I have stated before, an organization cannot lose as many leaders as Al Qaeda has recently and hope to remain a viable, combat effective organization. There exists daily reports of emirs, commanders, and cell leaders being killed or detained in Baghdad and in the belts surrounding Baghdad.

Note, it appears Iraqi Special Operations Forces are inside Al Qaeda in Iraq's organization. Also note, that this Iraqi General is not afraid to tell Al Qaeda it has been completely infiltrated. As Al Qaeda in Iraq leadership is whittled down daily, we will now see it leaders not trusing of each other, causing its faster demise.

For a full read, click here.

Syria rebuilding alleged nuclear site bombed by IAF

From Haaretz.

Syria has started to rebuild the site of an alleged nuclear facility bombed by the Israel Air Force on September 6, 2007, according to a report released Friday by The New York Times. A satellite photograph of the site shows new construction in place that resembles the former building, which according to foreign media reports was a nuclear facility in northeastern Syria built with North Korean assistance. Syria and North Korea, however, have both vehemently denied any nuclear cooperation. The New York Times reported that the new satellite photograph shows a tall, square building under construction that appears to bear close resemblance to the original structure, with the exception that the new roof is vaulted instead of flat.

Later in the article, it states

Syrian President Bashar Assad has since maintained that Israel bombed an "unused military building" in the September raid.

A few things I find fascinating about this article are:

1. It was supposedly an unused, abandoned military building, but Syria is spending money to rebuild it.

2. Syria never really publically came out and decried the attack nor did they seek to get the UN involved to denounce Israel.

3. Israel banned coverage of this attack and only recently allowed it to be stated that it had successfully attacked a target inside Syria.

4. If the building wasn't important, why is it being rebuilt so fast?

5. If it is important, why build it in the same spot?

For a full read, click here.

Iraqi Parliament To Hold Contests For Flag Design, National Anthem

From MEMRI.

The Iraqi parliament has decided to hold a contest for a new design for the flag of the Iraqi Republic, and for an Iraqi national anthem. Proposals are to be submitted to parliament, and will be examined by the parliamentary culture committee.

Not something you would expect from a country suffering from an intense civil war, unless of course, peace and prosperity are really breaking out, and Iraq is not an unmitigated disaster we are led to believe.

Something of note the MEMRI article does not point out, the Kurds have long sought a new flag for Iraq. Talabani himself has stated the following about the current Iraqi flag,

“It's a Saddamist flag,” he said at a joint news conference with British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett. “A lot of crimes have been committed under this flag in the south, in the north and against our neighbors.”

Again, we are led to believe that not only are Iraqis at each other's throats, but so are Iraqi politicians to the point of succession, but yet, Iraqi politicians are redesigning their flag and searching for a National Anthem.

34 al Qaeda killed in day's fighting during Phantom Phoenix

Bill Roggio gives an excellent update on Operation Phantom Pheonix at The Long War Journal.

Coalition and Iraqi security forces were active during Thursday and Friday's fighting as part of Operation Phantom Phoenix. Two senior al Qaeda in Iraq operatives were killed along with 32 foot soldiers during fighting in Arab Jabour, Miqdadiyah and the Samarra region. Another 34 al Qaeda fighters were reported captured.

For a full read, click here.

South Waziri Tribesmen Organize Counterinsurgency Lashkar

Andrew Mc Gregor writes for The Jamestown Foundation about the Waziri tribemen organizing a lashkar against foreign militants in Pakistan. He notes,

Maulvi Nazir—a 33-year-old tribal leader also known as Mullah Nazir—is leading the effort to take retribution for the slayings. Most of those killed in the attacks were loyal to him. A former Taliban commander believed to have connections to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI), Nazir has publicly accused Baitullah Mehsud for the killings. Baitullah, appointed as the leader of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan coalition late last year, has also been blamed by Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf for the assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto on December 27, 2007, a charge Baitullah has denied.

Mr. Mc Gregor explains the current situation which resulted in a lashkar.

The Ahmadzai believe that the assassins of the elders are Uzbek militants from the community of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) fighters who crossed into South Waziristan from Afghanistan in 2001. Led by Tahir Yuldash, the Uzbeks had been allowed by the Taliban to take refuge and set up training camps in Afghanistan after a number of setbacks in their Central Asian jihad. Initially trained and led by Uzbek veterans of the Soviet armed forces, the Uzbeks are skilled fighters who have taken on security duties for the al-Qaeda leadership in the tribal regions of Pakistan. Since their arrival the Uzbeks have established successful farms and businesses as well as integrating into the local community through intermarriage. By doing so, the Uzbeks have availed themselves of the powerful local custom of melmastia (“hospitality”), which involves the protection of the host party against all attempts to harm or seize the guest. At the same time the Uzbeks have become involved in local vendettas as guns-for-hire and are blamed for much of the violent crime in the region. This has resulted in a number of violent battles between tribesmen and Uzbek fighters in recent years. Already well-known in Afghanistan as a Taliban commander, Maulvi Nazir made his reputation locally by leading tribesmen in successful attacks against the Uzbeks last year, driving most of them from the Wana Valley in April 2007. The Uzbeks have developed especially close ties to members of the Mehsud tribe but are no longer united under a single leader.

However, he notes,

There are indications that the murders of the Ahmadzai leaders may be part of an intra-clan struggle for leadership of the Ahmadzai. According to one report, Maulvi Nazir’s brother and rival, Noorul Islam, has claimed responsibility for the attacks as retaliation for Maulvi Nazir’s alliance with the government and his initiation of a war against the Uzbeks. According to Noorul, “Maulvi Nazir is the government's agent and he will pay a heavy price for killing mujahideen" (Udayavani, January 10). Not all members of the Mehsud tribe support Baitullah’s growing feud with the Ahmadzai: a jirga of 80 Mehsud elders met with Baitullah’s followers on January 8 to try to defuse a potentially devastating tribal war.

While Mr. Mc Gregor ends with,

It would be a mistake to regard Maulvi Nazir as either pro-Washington or pro-Islamabad. Nazir acts in his own interest, those of his clan and those of his tribe and will ally himself with anyone he perceives may further those interests. His extended family owns property on both side of the Afghan-Pakistani border and he travels freely between the two without interference from the Afghan Taliban. The apparently impending explosion of violence in the Waziristan frontier region will only create further instability that can be exploited by the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

It must be noted that significant rifts are beginning to occur between the Taliban themselves in Pakistan and with Al Qaeda. While this instability can be exploited by the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, one would assume that Al Qaeda would prefer stability in this region and instability in the settled, eastern regions of Pakistan. The last thing Al Qaeda wants as it seeks to battle the Pakistani government would be infighting among its supporters in its base of operations. This did not prove productive for Al Qaeda in Anbar, nor is it proving productive in the Diyala province. I do not think it will end up being productive here.

So, yes, Al Qaeda does seek instability in the settled, eastern areas of Pakistan and is formenting instability in this region with suicide bombing. However, the instability occurring in the FATA region can, should, and undoubted will be used by the Pakistani government to weaken Al Qaeda stronghold of this area.

For a full read of the above article, click here.

Implications of the New Kurdish-Sunni Alliance for Security in Iraq’s Ninawa Governorate

Ramzy Mardini, writing for The Jamestown Foundation, discusses the ramification for Iraq regarding the recent "memorandum of understanding" first reported in this blog on 26 December 2007.

As the U.S. military “surge” and the activities of Iraq’s Awakening Councils drive al-Qaeda and other insurgent groups into northern Iraq, a new and largely overlooked accord between Kurds and Sunnis could have enormous implications for the security situation in the Ninawa governorate. On December 24, the two major Iraqi Kurdish parties—the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)—signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP). Though the agreement was grossly underreported in Western media, the event may presage a gradual but significant change in Iraqi politics with great importance for the political security of Ninawa and the rest of northern Iraq: the formation of a Kurdish-Sunni alliance.

Mr. Mardini continues with,

The apparent Kurdish-Sunni alliance may have been formed to send a signal to Maliki that his power as prime minister is contingent on Kurdish participation. This is in fact what Salim Abdullah, a leader in Hashimi’s party, indicated when he suggested Sunnis and Kurds could come together to challenge Shiite preference and power (al-Sharq al-Awsat, December 26, 2007). By threatening to ally with the Sunnis and break up the four-party alliance—effectively paralyzing the central government—the Kurdish parties gain political leverage in pressuring Maliki to submit to the KRG’s demands.

Mr. Mardini notes the reason behind the Kurdish-Sunni alliance.

The accord’s announcement has come at a delicate time in Shiite-Kurdish relations. In August 2007, the KDP and PUK saved the central government from political paralysis by uniting in a four-party alliance with Abdul Aziz al-Hakim’s Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s Dawa Party (Aswat al-Iraq, December 25, 2007). Since then, political developments have changed the alliance’s status—perhaps compelling Kurdish leaders to spearhead a strategic relationship with their Sunni Arab counterparts, thus redefining their existing rapport with the Shiite political bloc.

While I agree with his premise that the Kurdish-Sunni alliance seeks gain political leverage for both Kurds and Sunnis, I disagree with his premise that it seeks to break up the four-party alliance and challenge Shiite preference and power.

Instead, I believe Maliki is attempting lessen the government's dependence on Sadr and seeks to form a nonsectarian alliance to counter Iranian influence. Let me explain.

Between Kurds and Sunni, this alliance at most represents an pack supported by 42% of the Iraqi population, in and of itself not enough to gain a majority, but instead to become a significant minority. Adnan al-Dulaimi, whose party makes up a significant portion of the Iraq Accord Front, has recently been implicated in a string of car bombings in the Hai al-'Amil neighborhood, which weakens the political leverage of the Iraq Accord Front. In addition, the initial aims and goals which formed this coalition (namely to unify Sunni political leverage against the Shiites and U.S. forces), is no longer paramount.

Instead, what is paramount is being on the democratically elected government's side during what appears to be the upcoming U.S. victory and a wholesale defeat of Al Qaeda in Iraq (and any of its supporters, like Al-Dulaimi) and other militias like the Mahdi Militia.

The United Iraqi Alliance, which Maliki's Dawa party is affiliated, is also breaking up. Again, what was once paramount to this organization, namely, anybody in charge but Sunnis, is no longer the central issue. Instead, the central issue is being on the winning side in Iraqi's civil turmoil. Maliki owes his leadership position to Sadr, whose 30 votes for Maliki effectively soldified his power, but prevented Hakim from becoming Prime Minister. Maliki is attempting to ensure his position is no longer beholden to Sadr.

This Kurdish-Sunni alliance (without Al-Dulaimi's party) allied with the Dawa party of Maliki; however, represents a majority. The key here is this majority would not be beholdened to Al Qaeda in Iraq, the Mahdi Army, or the Badr Corps. This fact is something that cannot be said of current political affiliations. In addition, this new alliance would allow Maliki to replace ministers who are tainted by the past insurgency, regardless of affiliation (Sunni or Shiite), and are effectively stalling political progress in Iraq at the national level.

With provincial and general elections coming up this year and next year respectively, this new alliance can enter into elections with an insurgency defeated, several reconciliation laws passed, and without alliance to insurgents or militias.

Maliki's recent reversal on allowing Sunni CLC personnel to join the security forces is a concession he needs to give to Sunnis to become part of this alliance.

What is important is these three diverse groups are forming an alliance not only for their own political survival and leverage, but for the unity and survival of Iraq in general. In addition, this future alliance will not be beholdened to current militias, insurgent groups, or Iran which is plaguing current alliances. This alliance must compromise to get anything accomplished, whether it be an oil law, national reconciliation, or Iraqi federalism. Finally, these parties will undoubtedly have to rule with secularly since such diverse religious affliliations would never agree on religious decrees.

The formation of a Sunni-Kurdi-Maliki alliance would move the Iraqi political process forward and lessen the impact of militia and nonsecular forces in the government allowing Iraq to move forward as a secular democracy.

For a full read of The Jamestown Foundation article, click here.

Iraq Al Qaeda Emir killed in US air shelling

From Alsumaria Iraqi Satellite TV Network.

Awakening council commander in southern Baghdad Sheikh Mostapha Al Jibouri announced that Al Qaeda Emir in southern Baghdad Walid Khudeir was killed in addition to 20 gunmen during the US air shelling that targeted areas in Arab Jabour. Al Jibouri declared that coalition forces have provided them with intelligence on Al Qaeda locations and weapons caches, part of an operation to clear the region of insurgents. In western Samarra, Salah Din police chief, Brigadier Ahmad Yassin, announced that an emergency police force from Salah Din province have executed a military operation in Shanana region and killed one of Al Qaeda Emirs called Abu Qutada Al Saudi and arrested 11 of his aids while it confiscated weapons and explosives.

Al Qaeda emirs (at least comparable to the rank of Colonel) are getting to meet their promised 72 virgins. It will be extremely difficult for Al Qaeda in Iraq to make up for the expertise of these lost commanders. In addition, the one's not killed are detained and are undoubtedly providing a wealth of intelligence about Al Qaeda in Iraq's remaining composition and disposition in Iraq which is leading to more effective targeting, both lethal and non-lethal.

North Korea's True Colors

From John Bolton writing in The Wall Street Journal.

There's more positive news from the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea: Its leaders have refused to make any further disclosure concerning its nuclear programs. How is this umpteenth violation of the Feb. 13, 2006, agreement in the Six-Party Talks positive? Because at a critical moment on a gravely important issue, North Korea has again shown its true colors, thus providing the United States an opportunity to extricate itself from this unwise and dangerous deal.

As always, Mr. Bolton is able to make an informed, knowledgeable recommendation for future dealings with North Korea.

For the full read, click here.

Who's War? Separating Fact from Fiction in 'Charlie Wilson's War'

Paul Kengor at the American Thinker asks the question of who was the impetus behind our covert support of the rebels in the Soviet-Afghanistan war. His first quote answers the question.

"Reagan specifically urged the supplying of U.S. shoulder-launched, heat-seeking missiles that can shoot down Soviet helicopter gunships." -Martin Schram, Washington Post, January 10, 1980

Going back in history, the Soviet War in Afghanistan started on 25 December 1979. One will also note that Reagan was elected in November 1980. The quote about him above therefore came two weeks after the start of the war and a full year prior to him becoming President. Mr. Kengor explains the situation of the movie.

The movie, and the book, is about a moderate-to-conservative Democratic Congressman, a profane, hard-drinking, womanizing, anti-communist politician who was indeed -- as the movie makes abundantly clear-- very important to providing a huge amount of covert financial and military support to the Mujahedin rebels who resisted the Soviet Union after the Red Army invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The USSR brutalized the nation and its innocent people. Charlie Wilson's goal was to give the Afghan "freedom fighters" the supplies they needed to defeat the Soviets.

However, he notes.

While all of this is true, this is (at best) half the story -- maybe even a quarter of the story. It helps explain what happened in the Democrat-controlled Congress, where the likes of Charlie Wilson were a godsend to counter the San Francisco Democrats and Massachusetts liberals who would have let Central America become a Soviet-Cuban outpost. But the rest of the story, which receives no mention, is that it was the Reagan administration, and specifically CIA director Bill Casey, National Security Adviser Bill Clark, Secretary of Defense Cap Weinberger, and Ronald Reagan himself -- plus numerous aides -- who were the driving force behind supplying the Mujahedin. This movie could have been made 10 years ago about Bill Casey, whose actions were even more dramatic than Charlie Wilson's -- albeit not as obscene -- or about Bill Clark.

For a concise primer regarding the influence of National Security Decision Directives (NSDD) signed by the Reagan administration and Reagan himself, read the whole article.

One thing I am certain of that this article does not mention, if Reagan had not been elected and President Carter won a second term, there would not have been a "Charlie Wilson's War" much less a movie to critique. While President Carter expressed displeasure with the Soviets and stated,

"the most serious threat to peace since the Second World War."

While he attacked the Soviet War in Afghanistan with threatened boycotts of the 1980 Olympics, trade embargos, and $20 million in support for the Afghanistan rebels, significant pressure against the Soviet Union and support for the Afghanistani rebels did not occur until after President Reagan was sworn into office.

Another forgotten peace which prevented further U.S. involvement is that President Carter was stymied by the Iran Hostage Crisis and the botched rescue attempt. Notable, the Iran Hostage Crisis was ended within minutes of Reagan being sworn in as President as he had effectively ran on a platform which suggested direct enagagement with Iran and containing and reversing Soviet influence and expansion.

At least 130 suspects held in Iraq crackdown (Roundup)

From M&C News.

A US-Iraqi force backed by helicopters arrested 103 suspected al-Qaeda militants in an offensive south of Baghdad while 30 suspects were rounded up in another crackdown in the capital, the Iraqi military said Friday.

133 extremists detained.

The numbers just keep adding up. The last remnants of Al Qaeda in Iraq are being killed or detained as Operation Marne Thunderbolt keeps rounding up Al Qaeda in Iraq extremists as does Operation Iron Harvest.

Al-Qaeda commander killed in military operation north of Baghdad

From KUNA.

Governor of Salah Eddin province Hamad AL-Kashti said on Friday that Al-Qaeda Commander Abu Qutada Al-Saudi was killed today during a military operation carried out by Iraqi security forces and US military in the city of Samarra north of Baghdad. AL-Kashti told KUNA, two days ago Iraqi security forces in collaboration with Iraqi military and police in the province, and US coalition forces raided a hide out for the terrorists after receiving intelligence information regarding the hide out. Iraqi security force were able to kill Abu Qutada and three of his followers, including the arrest of 12 others, Al-Kashti said. The Iraqi governor added US military air planes supported operations near the area. For his part, Iraqi Police Commander Brigadier in the province said that Abu Qutada was carrying an explosive belt when he was killed, noting that weapon caches and explosives were confiscated after the operation.

Another Al Qaeda commander bites the dust.

Iraq General: Six Villages Taken From Al-Qaida

From NASDAQ/AFP.

Iraqi and U.S. forces engaged in a major assault on al-Qaida have wrested control of six villages in central Iraq from the Islamist militant group, an Iraqi army general said Friday. At least 10 members of al-Qaida were killed and 20 suspected militants were arrested in the sweep, Major General Abdul Karim al-Rubaie, director of operations in central Diyala province, told AFP. The villages named by the general fall within the "breadbasket" farmlands surrounding the town of Muqdadiyah, which is the main focus of Operation Iron Harvest launched Tuesday by Iraqi and U.S. forces, assisted by members of anti- al-Qaida "Awakening" groups. "The villages have been under the control of al-Qaida for a long time," said Rubaie. "We have taken them back and al-Qaida has been chased out."

The remnants of Al Qaeda in Iraq are being killed, detained, or fled from this latest assault as part of Operation Iron Harvest. U.S. Forces are moving into the Muqdadiyah region to close a line of communication into Baghdad along the Diyala River Valley.

Afghanistan: Army discovers Iranian mines on road from Kabul

From Adnkronos International.

Mines produced in Iran have been discovered and seized by Afghani armed forces along the road between the capital, Kabul, and the eastern city of Jalalabad." These mines are the latest technology and considered very dangerous," said a spokesman from the organisation for Afghani national security. It is not the first time that Iran has been accused of sending arms to Taliban guerillas who are fighting the government of Hamed Karzai. Recently the head of the Canadian troops stationed in Afghanistan accused Tehran of collaborating with militants linked to the Taliban leader, Mullah Omar. Before him, the US defence secretary, Robert Gates, spoke of Tehran's involvement in Afghanistan.

Now, direct proof they are meddling in Afghanistan. Many problems in the Middle East eventually come back to Iran. It is time to deal with this issue directly.

Snow of all things counters global warming and shows Iraqi progress

It is not often that one article not only refutes global warming, but also shows the dramatic success of The Surge in Iraq.

"It is the first time we've seen snow in Baghdad," said 60-year-old Hassan Zahar. "We've seen sleet before, but never snow. I looked at the faces of all the people, they were astonished," he said.

I am going to do what most global warming alarmist do and use one example as proof of an entire theory while disregarding factual evidence which does not support my case. If it has never snowed in Iraq, yet today it snowed in Iraq, then we must be experiencing Global Cooling. In addition, because the U.S. is to blame for everything and U.S. forces are in Iraq, I am jumping to the conclusion that Global Cooling is man-made.

Ok, I am sorry, but I could not resist. It is interesting to see how Iraqis are reacting to snow.

"It's a sign of hope. We hope Iraqis will purify their hearts and politicians will work for the prosperity of all Iraqis."

Not only have Iraqis seen snow for the first time, but they felt it was an "omen of peace" for Iraq. They are seeing peace and prosperity given to them by President Bush and the American military who put them on the road to freedom and democracy.

Hezbollah's Billion Petrodollars

Walid Phares delivers his assessment of activities inside of Lebanon in this Human Events article. He discusses two major changes occurring inside Hezbollah.

The first change is a shift in leadership responsibilities. A report published initially in the Saudi owned Sharq al Awsat said the office of Ayatollah Khomenei appointed deputy secretary general Sheikh Naim Qassim as the new supreme commander of Hezbollah forces and the personal representative of the Ayatollah in Lebanon.

Why did Khomenei change leadership of Hezbollah forces?

They said it was in preparation for a potential massive move by Hezbollah to seize more power in Lebanon and before a possible clash with the Lebanese Government and the United Nations over the disarmament process.

Mr. Phares cites General Hajj's assassination as proof of this fact.

Sources believe the assassination of Brigadier General Francois Hajj, director of operations in the Lebanese Army was another preemptive measure ordered by the Pasdaran command in Lebanon. Hajj was slated to become the next commander of the Lebanese Army. The latter was to deploy across Lebanon and eventually begin the collection of weapons. Hence, believe the observers, a Syro-Iranian order was issued to preempt and eliminate a man who could have become the military commander to force Hezbollah to disarm.

The second major change in Hezbollah is a huge increase in its operating budget.

Hezbollah’s funding was elevated from $400 million US to $1 billion. This ballistic leap would enable the organization to crush any opponent inside Lebanon and engage in worldwide operations against Western Democracies and Arab moderates. According to experts in Lebanon, the $400 millions figure was enough to pay for hundreds of social centers and thousands of salaries enough to insure a full control over the Shia community, its representatives in Parliament and buy significant influence inside the Sunni, Druze and particularly Christian community. One hundred million dollars alone, could pay for the activities of movements opposed to the Cedars Revolution and the democratically elected Government of Seniora.

Mr. Phares notes that a billion dollars gives Iran a fleet to counterbalance the US Naval Fleet in the Middle East.

A month ago as I was participating in a cross fire program on al Jazeera facing off with a coordinator of Iranian propaganda in the Arab world, I was asked why the US maintains a Navy in the Middle East. "Where are Iran's fleets," he asked. I replied that the Iranian regime maintains land fleets. "Hezbollah's 30,000 rockets and its millions of dollars is an Iranian fleet" I answered.

For a full read, click here.

Tribesmen raising anti-Al Qaeda Lashkar

Dawn is reporting of major rift between Al Qaeda in tribes in South Waziristan.

Thousands of armed tribesmen of South Waziristan met here on Wednesday, vowing to organise a Lashkar to hunt down Al Qaeda-linked militants blamed for killing nine of their kinsmen. The tribal jirga in Wana came three days after militants stormed two offices and killed nine tribal elders of a government-sponsored peace committee. The jirga ordered tribesmen from every household belonging to the Wazir tribe to come to Wana with arms to prepare for action, a local official said. "One man from each house should come to Wana with a gun at 10am on Thursday to plan our defence and act against those who are responsible for disorder," tribal chief Malik Ghaffar told the gathering. Wazir tribe chief Maulvi Nazir, who earned fame after he drove out hundreds of Uzbeks from the region last year in bloody clashes, is expected to address the Lashkar on Thursday. He did not turn up at Wednesday’s meeting but had earlier blamed Baitullah Mehsud, a local Al Qaeda commander and leader of the rival Mehsud tribe, for the killing of the peace committee members. Residents have reported that announcements have been made on a public address system asking Mehsud tribesmen to "leave Wana to avoid losses". Baitullah Mehsud is accused by the government of masterminding a spate of suicide attacks in the country, including the December 27 assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto in a gun and bomb attack in Rawalpindi. Mehsud has denied any involvement in the killing. Local sources told AFP his tribe was preparing a jirga to negotiate with the Wazir tribe to avoid a confrontation

A couple of significant notes here:

1. This is the beginning of the end for Al Qaeda. This is their sole remaining base of operations. Now locals have not only stopped supporting them, but if this report is to be believed, a jirga is being convened to actively go after Al Qaeda in Pakistan.

2. It notes that Baitullah Mehsud is a local Al Qaeda commander. Stories have been coming out stating he was a leader of the united Taliban in Pakistan, but here he is stated to be a local leader of Al Qaeda. Note again, the symbolic shift against Al Qaeda in Pakistan.

Take these two facts together with an earlier reports that Al Qaeda is attempting to execute a forceful take over of the Taliban, an Afghani Taliban leader switching sides, Mullah Mansoor Dadullah defiance of dismissal by Mullah Omar, and reports of Islamic parties are losing support in Pakistan and we see mounting evidence of a significant fracture between the Taliban and Al Qaeda and between the Taliban themselves.

I reported earlier that Al Qaeda made a grave mistake in assassinating Bhutto. While initially claiming credit for Bhutto's assassination, it was never officially taken credit for due to the uprising of support for Bhutto.

Musharraf used emergency rule to reposition tens of thousand forces from Kashmir to the FATA region. With all this military supporting them, tribal leaders will feel safe confronting Al Qaeda in Pakistan.

Al Qaeda took a great risk assassinating Bhutto and bringing its war directly to its base of operations. It saw that it could have possibly gained nuclear weapons to use against the infidel. It now will soon be battling in its sole remaining safe haven.

Not only is Al Qaeda in Iraq defeated, but so is Al Qaeda in Pakistan, and therefore, Al Qaeda in general.

2008 is quickly shaping up to be a great year for people who love freedom. With Pakistani elections on 18 February 2008, it may very well also be a great year for people who love democracy.