Why would Hamas kidnap an Israeli Soldier?

Why would Hamas kidnap an Israeli Soldier? What would they expect to gain? Surely, they did not believe that Israel would capitulate to their demands. So why?

The answer is quite simple. International sanctions, especially with regards to money, against a Hamas led PA has resulted in their popularity significantly decreasing. Hence, Hamas needed an event to unite Palestinian support behind their members. That event was the kidnapping of Cpl. Gilad Shalit.

Ok, that is a pretty bold statement, so lets look at the facts.

Contrary to the title of this article at Haaretz, Palestinian poll: Faith in Hamas government is on the rise, a reading of the article sheds a different light.

The poll did find a decline in the popularity of Hamas as a political party. In February, 41.4 percent of respondents said they would vote for Hamas in the parliamentary election, while in June only 30.8 percent said they would vote for them if the election were to be held today. The percentage of respondents who said they would vote for Fatah increased slightly, from 31 percent in February to 33.2 percent in June. Trust in Hamas dropped from 38.7 in February to 28.9 in this poll.

These are significant 10 point drops in support for Hamas; hence, I am not sure why the article is titled as it is, but that is another story all together.

What is even more interesting is that the number of respondents who stated they would vote for Fatah. Wile only increasing slightly from February to June, it is now almost 3 points higher than the number of respondents who would vote for Hamas. These numbers show that if Abbas was to dissolve the government, he would be relatively assured of having a Fatah majority in Parliament again. This fact cannot be lost on Hamas.

As the old saying goes, "Desperate times brings desperate measures." So when did Hamas conceive of such an act to unite Palestinians behind them again or at the very least to reduce their sagging poll numbers?

According to the The Jerusalem Post, it was in March 2006.

Last March, PA Foreign Minister Mahmoud al-Zahar was asked in an interview with the Dubai-based satellite channel Al Arabiya how Hamas would be different from Fatah, and he replied that while Abbas failed to win the release of Palestinian prisoners, Hamas would do it by kidnapping soldiers and then negotiating for their release.

Interesting to say the least. Given the polling data, kidnapping an Israeli Soldier was (and is) and attempt by Hamas to improve their popularity and decrease Fatah's popularity. This statement is from their own Foreign Minister. By the same token, if Abbas was able to secure the release of Palestinian prisoners, Fatah's popularity would improve and further plummet Hamas' popularity.

According to the The Jerusalem Post,

Olmert said Sunday that before Shalit had been kidnapped, and he had been planning his long-anticipated meeting with Abbas, he had considered recommending - as a way of improving the overall atmosphere - the releasing of some Palestinian prisoners, including those Israel would not release in the past.

However, to do so now, he said, would be the end for Abbas. In other words, freeing Palestinian prisoners would prove Zahar right, and all but politically bury Abbas.

Now the facts show exactly why Hamas kidnapped Cpl. Gilad Shalit.

Did Hamas believe that they would secure the release of Palestinian prisoners by kidnapping Cpl Gilad Shalit? Oh course not. However, have they now prevented the release of Palestinian prisoners that Abbas may have won from Olmert which would have undoubted resulted in increase popularity for Fatah and decreasing popularity for Hamas. Abbas may have been able in the near future to push forward the "Two-state" vote and eventually dissolve the Hamas Parliament, regaining international monetary support, and possibly bringing an end to the Middle East crisis that we have known for years.

The kidnapping is simple math. Hamas needed an event to unify Palestinians around them to lift up their saggin pole numbers and prevent further Fatah popularity gains. Kidnapping an Israeli Soldier would cause Israel to retaliate uniting Palestinians. By asking for the release of prisoners that Israel was going to release anyway has effectively prevented Israel from releasing these prisoners as planned in the future.

This mentality is supported by the fact that Hamas turned down an Egyptian proposal to release Cpl Shalit for a future release of Palestinian prisoners. The future meeting of Abbas and Olmert would have resulted in the release of not only prisoners that Hamas wanted released, but others Israel had refused to release in the past effectively putting the spotlight again on Fatah as the more moderate party that is able to seek concessions from Israel.

What is even more damning is that Hamas' actions to prevent a freefall of its popularity and a resurgence of support for Fatah has prevented hundreds of Palestinian prisoners from returning home. Hamas doesn't care about the Palestinians. It only cares about securing and retaining power.

There is only one word for this type of mindset - disgusting.

However, one thing that is not lost on any democratically elected government is that if it does not rule for the people by the people that elected it, it will soon find itself out of power. The kidnapping of Cpl Shalit has in the short term prevented Hamas' popularity from freefalling and Fatah's popularity from skyrocketing, but it will not in the long-term prevent it from being voted out of office in the future for this underhandedness.

Time is on Abbas side in this showdown. Abbas in the near future will win the release of Palestinian prisoners. The Palestinians will vote for a "Two-state" solution in the future. Palestinians will continue to see Hamas as a primary reason they are not being given international financial aid and an obstruction to peace. Fatah, humiliated in its recent defeat by Hamas, is growing smarter in governing for its people and understanding that moderation with Israel is a must to gain the freedoms it is seeking.

Hamas is now in a no-win situation.

If it gives up Cpl Shalit after Israeli forces have shattered many Hamas symbols, it will be seen as week.

If it kills Cpl Shalit, it will be seen as the the instigator that cause much Palestinian death and destruction by Israeli forces.

Its only move right now is to keep Cpl Shalit alive and see if Israel blinks. However, the longer this crisis goes on, the longer the Palestinian people are hurt and the more popularity Hamas loses.

Abbas for his part has been seen publically supporting Haniyeh, when he has come out of hiding. This is a smart move for Abbas and Fatah.

The two ways this crisis will end is Abbas will be seen as the ruling moderate that brought this crisis to a end prior to anymore bloodshed or Hamas will kill Cpl Shalit and be at the mercy of Israel's revenge. At this point Abbas again will moderate an eventual ceasefire. Either way, Hamas, due to Israel's hardline stance, will lose ground politically. Abbas, and Fatah by extension, will gain ground politically, push through a delayed vote on the "Two-State" solution, and see an eventual return of international support. But after the "Two-State" solution vote, it will then be up to Fatah to bring Palestinians into the 21st century.

The crisis is the beginning of a free Palestinian state that hopefully will strive for peace and an end for Hamas, and by extension, the Muslim Brotherhood.

Hamas' biggest failing was being democratically elected to lead a nation.