Iran-What is behind the rhetoric and its nuclear determination?
Since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, Iran has seen the United States as the "Great Satan" (the ruler of evil inclinations in humans) and Israel as the "Lesser Satan" (the heavenly prosecuting attorney and secret police agent). Iranian utter contempt for the US and Israel has been around for a couple of decades now. Iran has pretty much been left to its own devices, despite common knowledge that they are a state sponsor of terrorism. Both sides (US and Iran) have covertly sought to reduce the power and influence of the other in the Middle East.
What then is behind the recent rise in rhetoric and overt nuclear determination? Why is Iran now starting the "Second Islamic Revolution? To understand the rhetoric in Iran, one must understand their current situation and political makeup.
Iran is governed by two main bodies. The first and most powerful is the religious body. The second is the elected politicians including the president and legislature.
The Supreme Leader in Iran is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He was hand-picked by Ayatollah Khomeini as his successor in 1989. The Supreme Leader maintains his power through the Council of Experts (or Guardian Council) which is a religious "legislative" body that comprises ayatollahs loyal to the Islamic Revolution regime. While still calling for the destruction of the US and Israel, Khamenei and the Council of Experts have pursued this course covertly since 1989. They understand the need for Iran to function in a global society to modernize its country and to enjoy economic success.
The President of Iran, while democratically elected by the populous, must first be approved and nominated by the Council of Experts. In June 2005, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won the presidency over Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. President Ahmadinejad is a strict militaristic Islamic fundamentalist, a follower of the Khomeini tradition. He believes in the messianic belief of Hidden (12th) Imam. This belief is similar to the Christian vision of the Apocalypse. Indeed, the Hidden Imam is expected to return in the company of Jesus. Both Ayatollah Khomeini and Khamenei in the last several years drove this radical element under ground.
The outgoing president, Khatami, was a moderate Islamic reformist. Iran enjoyed a slow but significant move to western ways under Khatami. While Rafsanjani is not a recognized reformist, he along with Khatami and Ayatollah Khamenei, understand the need for Iran to be part of the international scene for growth and prosperity.
There exists a single legislative body in Iran called the Majlis. This body is also elected by the populous (once approved by the Council of Experts) and like our Congress, has the ability to block certain actions by the President. Its disapproval of Ahmadinejad's first three selections to the Oil Ministry is an example.
Finally, there exists a Judiciary headed by head Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi. Like our Federal Courts, the Judiciary reviews cases brought before it and passes judgment in criminal and civil cases.
With the election of President Ahmadinejad, an internal struggle surfaced in Iran between the new militaristic Islamic fundamentalist represented by Ahmadinejad and the out-of-power reformists and moderates. To balance the new shift in power, Ayatollah Khamenei created a new branch of government called the Expediency Council which he appointed Rafsanjani to chair. Rafsanjani, in turn, appointed Khatami as Senior Advisor to the Council. Rafsanjani as Chairman of the Council is currently the number two person in Iran overseeing the President, the Majlis, and the Judiciary.
That is where we currently sit. Iran's Supreme Leader, Council of Experts, Judiciary, and Expediency Council are led by moderates. The Presidency and Majlis are led by extremists. However, as noted earlier, the Majlis does not always see eye-to-eye with Ahmadinejad.
Due to the pseudo-democracy set up in Iran, all leaders need to have popular support behind them or else they have no powerbase. President Ahmadinejad is trying to energize his base during his virulent speeches. His base, militant Islamic fundamentalists, seek a Persia once again in control of the Middle East; nuclear weapons are a method towards this end. From the moderate point of view, nuclear weapons also give Iran the insurance against attack and destruction. Most notably in their recent history, they were almost toppled by Saddam during the Iran-Iraq War. If not for Saddam's total military stupidity in not pursuing early gains, Iran would now be a part of Iraq. All Iranians, regardless of political persuasion, do not want to be put in this predicament again; nuclear weapons ensure security against such future actions.
Iran is concerned about its future, especially given the swift defeat Saddam suffered from the US in 2003. Nuclear weapons also allow them to level the playing field with Israel and give them the power to seek Israel's destruction-their eventual goal.
So again, why the sudden increase in rhetoric? President Ahmadinejad is the focal point of most obtuse rhetoric stating Israel should be "wiped off the map", but Rafsanjani, the supposedly pragmatic leader also has made recent statements regarding Iran's use of nuclear weapons against Israel.
The Telegraph has an interesting perspective. "The unspoken question is this: is Mr. Ahmadinejad now tempting a clash with the West because he feels safe in the belief of the imminent return of the Hidden Imam? Worse, might he be trying to provoke chaos in the hope of hastening his reappearance? Ahmadinejad has been noted to believe the Hidden Imam will reappear in two years. That rightly explains Ahmadinejad's position, but what about the "pragmatic" Rafsanjani, who was appointed to the Expediency Council to represent the more moderate Iranian view. Why his nuclear rhetoric, especially given the case that Iran is stating that its nuclear ambitions are purely civilian?
An answer may lie with an apparent nuclear deal struck between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in 2003. According to the Washington Times, "Both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia see a world that is moving from nonproliferation to proliferation of nuclear weapons." Saudi Arabia is concerned about an Iraqi Shi'a majority aligned with a nuclear Iran. Iran may be seeking parity against these Sunni (and sometimes radical) governments to ensure its continued strategic role in the Middle East and its own self-preservation. According to the American Thinker, "It is quite possible that Iran’s saber-rattling toward Israel is disinformation to cover the real strategic motivation for the pending acquisition of nuclear weapons." Middle East leaders have to understand that Israel's successful test of the Arrow ABM (anti-ballistic missile) in shooting down a mock Iranian Shahab-3 missile shows Israel's ability to defend itself against attack. A nuclear Iran cannot hope to "wipe Israel of the map" with nuclear weapons, but it can hope to maintain its own salvation and strategic role in the Middle East from what it sees as being surrounded by nuclear Sunni radicals in Saudi Arabia (who economically support Al-Qaeda) and Pakistan (who created the Taliban). The fact that Iran is also radical, is just another factor to examine.
While a regime change in Iran would be more comforting to the US, nuclear parity in the Middle East may very well be the solution to radical Sunni Islamofacists. The layers of leadership in Iran will forestall its use of nuclear weapons against Israel or any other nation. In addition, fallout from a nuclear exchange in the Middle East would severely disrupt economic interests in all oil producing countries. Only Israel has the ability to defend itself (and other Middle Eastern countries, if it so chooses). This ability, may give Israel the upper hand in future negotiations.
President Bush has given the Middle East a shining democratic star that will begin to thrive in the Middle East. In five to ten years, Iraq may well be a cultural and economic Mecca in the Middle East. Its multicultural diversity will welcome individuals from all surrounding nations. Its democratic influence will spread wealth and moderation in the Middle East. Unlike Israel, whose culture is hated by Arabs and Persians alike, Iraq will show similar nations what they can achieve with democracy-regardless of nuclear weapons.
Let the saber rattling continue.
What then is behind the recent rise in rhetoric and overt nuclear determination? Why is Iran now starting the "Second Islamic Revolution? To understand the rhetoric in Iran, one must understand their current situation and political makeup.
Iran is governed by two main bodies. The first and most powerful is the religious body. The second is the elected politicians including the president and legislature.
The Supreme Leader in Iran is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He was hand-picked by Ayatollah Khomeini as his successor in 1989. The Supreme Leader maintains his power through the Council of Experts (or Guardian Council) which is a religious "legislative" body that comprises ayatollahs loyal to the Islamic Revolution regime. While still calling for the destruction of the US and Israel, Khamenei and the Council of Experts have pursued this course covertly since 1989. They understand the need for Iran to function in a global society to modernize its country and to enjoy economic success.
The President of Iran, while democratically elected by the populous, must first be approved and nominated by the Council of Experts. In June 2005, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won the presidency over Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. President Ahmadinejad is a strict militaristic Islamic fundamentalist, a follower of the Khomeini tradition. He believes in the messianic belief of Hidden (12th) Imam. This belief is similar to the Christian vision of the Apocalypse. Indeed, the Hidden Imam is expected to return in the company of Jesus. Both Ayatollah Khomeini and Khamenei in the last several years drove this radical element under ground.
The outgoing president, Khatami, was a moderate Islamic reformist. Iran enjoyed a slow but significant move to western ways under Khatami. While Rafsanjani is not a recognized reformist, he along with Khatami and Ayatollah Khamenei, understand the need for Iran to be part of the international scene for growth and prosperity.
There exists a single legislative body in Iran called the Majlis. This body is also elected by the populous (once approved by the Council of Experts) and like our Congress, has the ability to block certain actions by the President. Its disapproval of Ahmadinejad's first three selections to the Oil Ministry is an example.
Finally, there exists a Judiciary headed by head Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi. Like our Federal Courts, the Judiciary reviews cases brought before it and passes judgment in criminal and civil cases.
With the election of President Ahmadinejad, an internal struggle surfaced in Iran between the new militaristic Islamic fundamentalist represented by Ahmadinejad and the out-of-power reformists and moderates. To balance the new shift in power, Ayatollah Khamenei created a new branch of government called the Expediency Council which he appointed Rafsanjani to chair. Rafsanjani, in turn, appointed Khatami as Senior Advisor to the Council. Rafsanjani as Chairman of the Council is currently the number two person in Iran overseeing the President, the Majlis, and the Judiciary.
That is where we currently sit. Iran's Supreme Leader, Council of Experts, Judiciary, and Expediency Council are led by moderates. The Presidency and Majlis are led by extremists. However, as noted earlier, the Majlis does not always see eye-to-eye with Ahmadinejad.
Due to the pseudo-democracy set up in Iran, all leaders need to have popular support behind them or else they have no powerbase. President Ahmadinejad is trying to energize his base during his virulent speeches. His base, militant Islamic fundamentalists, seek a Persia once again in control of the Middle East; nuclear weapons are a method towards this end. From the moderate point of view, nuclear weapons also give Iran the insurance against attack and destruction. Most notably in their recent history, they were almost toppled by Saddam during the Iran-Iraq War. If not for Saddam's total military stupidity in not pursuing early gains, Iran would now be a part of Iraq. All Iranians, regardless of political persuasion, do not want to be put in this predicament again; nuclear weapons ensure security against such future actions.
Iran is concerned about its future, especially given the swift defeat Saddam suffered from the US in 2003. Nuclear weapons also allow them to level the playing field with Israel and give them the power to seek Israel's destruction-their eventual goal.
So again, why the sudden increase in rhetoric? President Ahmadinejad is the focal point of most obtuse rhetoric stating Israel should be "wiped off the map", but Rafsanjani, the supposedly pragmatic leader also has made recent statements regarding Iran's use of nuclear weapons against Israel.
The Telegraph has an interesting perspective. "The unspoken question is this: is Mr. Ahmadinejad now tempting a clash with the West because he feels safe in the belief of the imminent return of the Hidden Imam? Worse, might he be trying to provoke chaos in the hope of hastening his reappearance? Ahmadinejad has been noted to believe the Hidden Imam will reappear in two years. That rightly explains Ahmadinejad's position, but what about the "pragmatic" Rafsanjani, who was appointed to the Expediency Council to represent the more moderate Iranian view. Why his nuclear rhetoric, especially given the case that Iran is stating that its nuclear ambitions are purely civilian?
An answer may lie with an apparent nuclear deal struck between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in 2003. According to the Washington Times, "Both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia see a world that is moving from nonproliferation to proliferation of nuclear weapons." Saudi Arabia is concerned about an Iraqi Shi'a majority aligned with a nuclear Iran. Iran may be seeking parity against these Sunni (and sometimes radical) governments to ensure its continued strategic role in the Middle East and its own self-preservation. According to the American Thinker, "It is quite possible that Iran’s saber-rattling toward Israel is disinformation to cover the real strategic motivation for the pending acquisition of nuclear weapons." Middle East leaders have to understand that Israel's successful test of the Arrow ABM (anti-ballistic missile) in shooting down a mock Iranian Shahab-3 missile shows Israel's ability to defend itself against attack. A nuclear Iran cannot hope to "wipe Israel of the map" with nuclear weapons, but it can hope to maintain its own salvation and strategic role in the Middle East from what it sees as being surrounded by nuclear Sunni radicals in Saudi Arabia (who economically support Al-Qaeda) and Pakistan (who created the Taliban). The fact that Iran is also radical, is just another factor to examine.
While a regime change in Iran would be more comforting to the US, nuclear parity in the Middle East may very well be the solution to radical Sunni Islamofacists. The layers of leadership in Iran will forestall its use of nuclear weapons against Israel or any other nation. In addition, fallout from a nuclear exchange in the Middle East would severely disrupt economic interests in all oil producing countries. Only Israel has the ability to defend itself (and other Middle Eastern countries, if it so chooses). This ability, may give Israel the upper hand in future negotiations.
President Bush has given the Middle East a shining democratic star that will begin to thrive in the Middle East. In five to ten years, Iraq may well be a cultural and economic Mecca in the Middle East. Its multicultural diversity will welcome individuals from all surrounding nations. Its democratic influence will spread wealth and moderation in the Middle East. Unlike Israel, whose culture is hated by Arabs and Persians alike, Iraq will show similar nations what they can achieve with democracy-regardless of nuclear weapons.
Let the saber rattling continue.
posted by Lieutenant Colonel Caveman at Sunday, January 15, 2006
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