John McCa$h

From PoliPundit.

The John McCain campaign and Republican National Committee released very strong financial numbers that will even rival what “The Messiah” has been raking in. McCain’s take of $27 million alone in July, certainly gives off the impression that GOP voters are willing to stand by the candidate and make the race competitive money wise:

Michael Sparxx also quotes an AP article which states:

McCain has been a subpar fundraiser and has lagged the much-more adept Obama in monthly campaign tallies. But the RNC, with big-draw President Bush helping, has trounced its Democratic counterpart in collections. That has helped McCain and the GOP stay competitive financially with Obama and the Democratic National Committee.

It is interesting. I always see how President Bush's approval ratings are so low. However, when I ask people (from all over the country) they seem to either like President Bush or are ambivalent about him. Very rarely, do I meet a person that actually despises him. Of the few I meet who despise him, I ask why and they usually say something about how dumb he is. When I delve further, they either cannot come up with any particular reason for being dumb or state he does not speak well. I usually reply with he speaks well enough to become president and that usually ends the discussion.

Now, this AP article states the RNC is using President Bush to ensure a "big-draw" in fundraising.

Low approval ratings. Dumb president, yet big-draw for fundraising. This is one of those things that make you go Hmmmm.

UN confirms "notable" decline in hostilities in Iraq

From Middle East News via Monsters and Critics.

The United Nations acknowledged Monday a marked decline in hostilities in Iraq, helped by the cumulative effect of an increase in US troops, the declared ceasefire by Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr and the role of Iraq's Awakening Councils. Iraq's neighbours also worked on security-related issues to help achieve the 'notable decline,' Staffan de Mistura, the Swedish diplomat who heads the UN mission in Iraq, told the UN Security Council in a public meeting. 'We cannot ignore the recent improvements both in the security and political situation in Iraq,' he said. But he warned that the main challenges in the war-torn country remain 'largely unaltered.'

Heck, even the UN is acknowledging The Surge is working. I guess Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi cannot be far behind.

I wonder if Presidental hopefuls Clinton and Obama will join with the UN on this fact.

For a full read, click here.

The Surge Effect - The gamble is paying off for Bush and McCain.

From Fred Barnes ath The Weekly Standard.

The match is almost perfect. As the surge in Iraq has succeeded, the presidential campaign of John McCain has risen from the ashes. This is no coincidence, and the message is simple and unmistakable. The surge is now a powerful force in American politics. In the jargon of the 2008 presidential race, it's a game-changer. The surge effect is the result of gains in Iraq well beyond the most optimistic dreams of the surge's advocates. The American military, led by General David Petraeus, has under-promised and over-delivered. Violence has dropped precipitously. So have attacks on Americans and combat deaths. Baghdad has been virtually secured, al Qaeda crushed, and sectarian bloodshed significantly reduced. Provinces once controlled by insurgents are scheduled to be turned over to well-trained Iraqi forces, starting with Anbar in the spring. The war, in short, is being won.

Mr. Barnes explains why it is good for John McCain.

This level of denial about the surge among Democrats is politically dangerous. Democratic voters may be immune to the surge effect, but independents are not. If the surge continues to bring stability to Iraq, independents--who produced the Democratic triumph in the 2006 election--almost certainly will begin to shift their support. They have no partisan commitment to defeat in Iraq. Like most Americans, they prefer victory.

For a full read, click here.

Minority retort

From Michael Coren at the Toronto Sun.

The irony is extraordinary. Canadians pride themselves on dismissing the United States as reactionary and unsophisticated while watching as that same country contemplates whether to elect as its leader a black man, a woman or a member of a religious minority. But then the U.S.A. never has been the ogre we like to imagine and in many ways is far more progressive and enlightened than is Canada. The president may not be the black Barack Obama, the female Hillary Clinton or the Mormon Mitt Romney, but the fact that they are serious contenders is truly remarkable. It's doubtful if Canadians would similarly vote for people irrespective of their race, gender or faith.

For a full read, click here.

It's the secular Left vs. the Christian Left

Mark Steyn discusses the results in Iowa as only Mark Steyn can.

Confronted by Preacher Huckabee standing astride the Iowa caucuses, smirking, "Are you feelin' Hucky, punk?", many of my conservative pals are inclined to respond, "Shoot me now." But, if that seems a little dramatic, let's try and rustle up an alternative.

To read the full article, click here.

The Big Winners

Richard Baehr has done some great analysis regarding the winners and losers in Iowa.

There were three winners in Iowa last night: Mike Huckabee, Barack Obama, and John McCain. The race in both parties has now changed, with the path to the nomination clearer on the Democratic side than the Republican.

For the Democrats

Barack Obama won decisively, by 8% over Edwards and 9% over Clinton. Voters under age 30 made up a fifth of the Democratic caucus voters and they gave over 50% of their votes to Obama. This has to make GOP strategists nervous about the general election if Obama is the nominee. Young voters are often not picked up in polling surveys, since many only use cell phones. Traditional election models may be useless if Obama is the Democratic Party nominee.

Regarding Clinton's inevitability.

Can Clinton recover? She has lots of money, and an infrastructure in place in many states. But her strength was the sense of inevitability about her winning, and her claim of long and meaningful experience. Neither was enough to win in Iowa. In Iowa, Clinton benefited from a strong race by John Edwards, which served to dilute the anyone but Clinton vote. Edwards does not have the money that Obama and Clinton have, and will likely be gone after South Carolina. His obsession with the Presidency will have to wait until 2012, assuming the GOP wins next year, or 2016 if they do not.

Regarding Obama.

Running against Obama is very tricky. It is hard to run against hope and unity, and breaking the color line and all that symbolizes. Yes, Obama is inexperienced. His instincts on dealing with the threat of Islamic jihadists suggests naïvete. They do not want to sit down and talk with us, not even him. But it may not matter. Obama is connecting with Democrats, independents, and some Republicans. After the bitterness of the Clinton and Bush years, he is an analgesic, a fresh face, promising better times and a more peaceful politics. The Republicans may rue the day Obama won Iowa, since Clinton would be a far easier candidate to run against.

For the Republicans

Could Mike Huckabee actually win the nomination? I think he could, though his road to victory is much more difficult than Obama's. Huckabee will likely get a boost in New Hampshire from his big Iowa win (9% over Romney), but it is hard to see him following up the Iowa victory with one in New Hampshire. More likely, he finishes third in the Granite State, unless Romney's support collapses there and Huckabee places second.

What about McCain?

John McCain, who will finish in an approximate tie for third in Iowa with Fred Thompson, is in very good shape to win New Hampshire against Romney's damaged campaign. McCain was already ahead in New Hampshire, and his showing in Iowa was quite respectable given how little time he spent there. Within days, the national polls will show Huckabee and McCain running one two in that order or the reverse order.

Is this then a McCain-Obama race?

McCain would be a favorite against Clinton and 50-50 at best against Obama, unless the Obama glow wears off by then. An Obama-McCain race would feature huge contrasts: age difference, experience, maturity, positions on the Iraq war. McCain is close to the center, and can appeal to independents, like Obama. Their race, if it comes to this, would likely turn on whether foreign threats trumped the domestic agenda. At this point, more people want to talk about healthcare, the economy, the housing slump, than Iraq or Afghanistan or Al Qaeda. That works to Obama's favor.

Richard Baehr ends with this interesting note.

In the last 3 elections the winner in November also won Iowa. Last night might make it four in a row.

Why are the wheels coming off the Clinton bandwagon?

Dick Morris, who managed Bill Clinton's 1996 re-election campaign has written an interesting article in Townhall, answering the question, Why are the wheels coming off the Clinton bandwagon? In the article he makes some salient points.

In the abstract, Hillary is a captivating idea. The first woman to run for president, she is the living reminder of the better economic times and international peace of the Clinton administration. But, up close and personal, she is far less attractive. As the rest of the country is exposed to the former first lady, if they emulate the voters in Iowa and New Hampshire and revise their opinion of her, the results will not please the Clinton camp.

Moreover, he states,

The conclusion is obvious: neither Hillary nor her staff know how to campaign. After the Clinton re-election in 1996, they have never been tested in a competitive race. When Giuliani dropped out of the New York State Senate race and the young Congressman Rick Lazio had to enter at the last minute to try to stop Hillary’s bid, the conclusion was pre-ordained. Hillary’s re-election was a cakewalk against a totally under funded opponent. She doesn’t know how to win.

It will be interesting if her campaign continues to implode.