The "Coalition of the Willing" against Israel, the EU, the US, and UN.

The election of Hamas to majority control of the Palestinian Parliament has led to some interesting results, namely a seldom seen consensus of international opinion is forming for this and other reasons.

German Chancellor Merkel pledged not to deal with the radical Islamist Hamas until it recognized Israel's right to exist. Specifically, she stated, "Cooperation between Israel and the Palestinians can only be possible if they (Hamas) meet three conditions -- the renunciation of terror and violence, recognition of Israel's right to exist and that they accept all existing international agreements."

She continued with, "This is Germany's position and we will also communicate this to the EU."

Secretary of State Rice, enroute to London to discuss how to deal with the newly elected Hamas government and Iran's pursuit of nuclear enrichment stated not only western states, but also regional states were "on the same page" with regards to continued funding for the Hamas controlled Palestinian Authority (PA).

Ismael Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader rebutted with, "This aid cannot be a sword over the heads of the Palestinian people and will not be material to blackmail our people, to blackmail Hamas and the resistance."

With almost $850 million in aid money to the PA expected from the US and EU this year, Hamas will be hardpressed to continue its hardline stance and assume the duties expected of a government. Like I have stated before in previous posts, Hamas' election victory has brought a lot of issues to the forefront. Fatah leaders are realizing they cannot continue with their corrupt way if they hope to regain power, Hamas will have to moderate or it will loose support, and the international community is realizing their tactic approval for anti-Israeli groups can no longer continue.

While Syria and Iran may increase funding for Hamas to compensate for other reductions, both of these countries are already in hot water internationally and aid from them does not come without increased risks. However, it appears that an extremely high stakes game is being played between the new "Coalition of the Willing" led by Iran against western and regional governments friendly to the United States. Hamas Leader Khaled Meshaal attended a conference in Tehran on 12 Dec 06 where he elicited support from Iran for his organization as were collaboration between Hamas, Jihad Islami, Hezbollah and Al Qaeda. Further Meshaal, Mugniyah the operational Hezbollah leader, Ahmadinejad, and Assad met in Damascus on 19 Jan 06 in an effort to consolidate this new alliance. Interestingly enough, Al Qaeda was holding an operational meeting in Damadola around the same time-18 Jan 06.

What is striking most of all is the timing of these events. With Iran moving ever closer to possible sanctions, Assad under intense international scutiny by the UN, and Lebanon calling for Hezbollah to disarm, it appears that these weakened entities are attempting to consolidate objectives and coordinate future actions against Israel and the US. But with Hamas' recent victory, we now have not only the US siding with Israel, but the EU coming online against these terrorist regimes. It also appears quite possible that the UN will be forced to stop its tacit approval of nations that support terrorists and terrorists organizations.

The democratic beacon in Iraq is reverberating throughout these Middle East regimes. Iraqis are now actively and effectively fighting foreign terrorists in Iraq and democracy is budding. The "Coalition of the Willing" now links three state-sponsors of terrorism, Iran, Syria, and the PA. Their destinies are linked. The collapse of any one of these regimes, will strike a deathblow to terrorist efforts in the region.

A recent assassination attempt on Ahmadinejad on 17 Dec 05, will undoubtedly result in persecution of reformers in Iran causing even more internal discourse among leaders in Iran and among the people. While all Iranian leaders would like to see a nuclear Iran to allow it to support terrorism with impunity, Ahmadinejad's outspoken nature definitely makes the more moderate factions in Iran nervous. Whether he will be able to quell internal dissent is still an open question. If he succeeds in quelling dissent, it is only a matter of time before UN sanctions or direct military action marks his demise. Hamas' victory has put it in a bad position as support for Israel, or at the least, understanding of its defensive position will continue to grow.

Assad is attempting to gain immunity for his cooperation with UN investigations. His powerbase is severely weakened and another failure may very well bring his demise. Recent actions by the Iraqi and US military in Anbar province is also limiting his affect in Iraq further eroding his support at home. Syria has always been a leader in the region. Its loss of Lebanon and its lack of effectiveness in Iraq is bringing it close to revolution.

Hamas, as stated above, while gaining power is now unexpectedly on the defensive and will have to attempt to govern without $850 millions in aid which may very well bring its immediate downfall as internal support dissipates or severely moderate its long held position. Either way, Hamas will be weakened.

All three regimes have their backs against the wall. They are attempting to coordinate efforts to ensure their survival. However, the unexpected Hamas victory has now pushed their actions into the limelight and showed their hands. Even small pushes by the US, the EU, or the UN can have devastating effects. The easiest to derail is Hamas by cutting $850 million in aid resulting in its quick demise as public servants and others dependent on this aid lead the march for its removal. This will be seen as another Assad failure resulting in his ousting with support for Hezbollah obviously disrupted to say the least. Iran would then stand alone with no allies. Curtailing gasoline imports into Iran would be an effective sanction to push reformists over the edge to bring down this regime.

President Bush's Greater Middle East Initiative is coming to a climax. Who would have expected a Hamas victory could have stirred up events so much. It is not often that random events come together to such a lopsided end. While terrorist entities were secretly coordinating alliances to orchestrate their action for the new year, Hamas' unexpected rise to power has significantly changed the dynamics and may allow western and regional powers to bring down two terrorist organizations (Hamas and Hezbollah) and two state-sponsors of terrorism (Syria and Iran). After them, the last bastion of hope is still hiding in caves in the mountainous region of Pakistan. The predator strike in Damadola which killed 4-5 top Al-Qaeda leaders may have also significantly disrupted Al-Qaeda new year plans.